Australia's grain outlook is heading into the 2026/27 marketing year with mixed results. On the one hand, barley farmers are expecting a historic bumper crop. On the other hand, wheat production is continuously lagging behind. According to the latest data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, the barley crop is expected to reach an all-time peak of 17.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 4.4% from last year. Meanwhile, wheat numbers are declining, estimated to decline 11.1% to 32.0 MMT.
Good rains in mid-October changed the game for summer crops as well. Sorghum production is estimated to have increased to 2.3 MMT, and milled rice production is now expected to reach 195,000 MT. When it comes to sending grains abroad, wheat exports should remain around 25.0 MMT, while barley exports could increase to 13.0 MMT. On the other hand, local rice demand means the country will import a record 325,000 metric tons.
Quick highlights of the 2026/27 crop outlook
- Barley production is set to reach a record 17.7 MMT, up 4.4% from last season.
- Wheat production will decline by 11.1% to 32.0 MMT due to lower sown area and early season dryness.
- Rainfall in mid-October increased sorghum production estimates in key areas to 2.3 MMT.
- Australia plans to ship 25.0 MMT of wheat and 13.0 MMT of barley.
- Domestic rice production is pegged at 195,000 metric tonnes, forcing imports to touch an all-time high of 325,000 metric tonnes.
Wheat prices got solid support in world markets
Even though Australia will harvest less wheat this period, farmers have access to global market pricing. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for the 2026/27 period traded about 15% above their previous 10-year average as of mid-October. This gives Australian growers and grain houses ample reason to pull grain from storage and sell on international trade routes, keeping shipment numbers stable despite small crop piles.
Additionally, large barley supplies and continued buying interest from China mean Australia's bulk grain export terminals will remain very busy in the coming months.
Breaking down the numbers: wheat vs barley
USDA FAS estimates show Australian wheat production declined to 32.0 MMT from 36.0 MMT a year earlier. Growers in Queensland and northern New South Wales planted fewer hectares this season, with much of the nitrogen lost due to fertilizer bills. But things are looking much better in the south. Generous rainfall and cool spring weather in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia helped crops fill in well just before harvest.
Barley tells a completely different story. Farmers deliberately replaced acres of wheat with barley to avoid heavy fertilizer costs and the risks of dry weather associated with the El Niño pattern. As a result, the barley crop is set to achieve its second consecutive record yield at 17.7 MMT. With China hungry for feed and malting grains, Australia looks set to export about 13.0 MMT of barley.
Jowar and Rice Trends
Jowar farmers got a big relief when the main growing areas received heavy rains in mid-October. That moisture sharply changed crop prospects, pushing production estimates up from an earlier 1.9 MMT to 2.3 MMT. The Trade Desk expects about 2.2 MMT to go into the export lanes, with buyers in China taking the lion's share as usual.
For rice, improved water supply in irrigation dams will bring mill production back up to 195,000 metric tons. Still, that's not enough to meet local consumption, which is why Australian buyers will import a record 325,000 metric tons to bridge the gap.
Key points for grain traders and commodity desks
- Strong Barley Cash Flow:Record supplies and steady Chinese purchases make Australian barley one of the most competitive feed grains in the Pacific Basin.
- गेहूं के स्टॉक में आएगी तेजी:Even with small production, firm CBOT pricing will persuade farmers to unlock carryover wheat stocks and sell in export tenders.
- Fertilizer Cost Shift Crop Options:High input expenses pushed growers away from wheat toward barley, proving how farm-level economics can reshape global supply lines.
- Dependence on rice imports increased:Australia remains heavily dependent on global white and fragrant rice suppliers for the foreseeable future due to reduced local production.