Wheat sowing is off to a slower pace than usual in key belts
भारतीय किसानों की इस शीत ऋतु में गेहूं की खेती की शुरुआत असामान्य रूप से धीमी रही है। आधिकारिक आंकड़ों से पता चलता है कि किसानों ने 23 अक्टूबर तक केवल 11,000 हेक्टेयर में गेहूं की बुआई की थी। इसकी तुलना पिछले साल ठीक इसी बिंदु पर लगाए गए 27,000 हेक्टेयर से करें, और आप तुरंत समझ जाएंगे कि व्यापारी क्षेत्र के अपडेट को करीब से क्यों देख रहे हैं। कमजोर दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून और पानी की लगातार कमी के कारण उत्पादकों को सूखी मिट्टी में बीज डालने से पहले दो बार सोचना पड़ रहा है।
The monsoon season ended with an overall rainfall deficit of 13% across the country. That shortage resulted in topsoil moisture drying up and major irrigation canals and reservoirs failing to refill before the Rabi planting season began. The situation looks particularly difficult in Punjab and Rajasthan. These two states together account for about 31% of India's total wheat area, yet Punjab completed the monsoon with a rainfall deficit of 38%, while Rajasthan faced a deficit of 22%. With water stocks lower than normal, the total Rabi crop coverage fell sharply to 18.02 lakh hectares from 28.26 lakh hectares a year ago.
big highlights from the field
- As of October 23, the area under wheat was just 11,000 hectares, less than half of last year's 27,000 hectares.
- The south-west monsoon ended with a deficit of 13%, leaving fields dry and canals low in water.
- Punjab and Rajasthan, which grow about a third of the country's wheat, face rainfall deficit of 38% and 22% respectively.
- Total winter crop planting declined to 18.02 lakh hectares from 28.26 lakh hectares last year.
- The central government is targeting a record crop of 121 million tonnes for 2026-27, down from 120.7 million tonnes in the last season.
Water shortages threaten important growing pockets
It is clear from the data of the Agriculture Ministry that there is a delay in sowing of many Rabi crops. Wheat is a thirsty plant from the beginning. Once the seed goes into the ground, it needs to be watered several times over the winter to establish a strong root system and increase grain weight. Without full reservoirs, watering schedules become a real problem.
Agronomists are raising alarm over non-irrigated and rain-dependent areas in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Bundelkhand and Central India. Farmers in these areas do not have deep tube wells or canal networks to fall back on if monsoon rains miss the target. If water shortages persist, producers may plant late, cut back on their total acreage, or settle for weaker yields in the future.
There is also a slowdown in sowing of other winter crops
Wheat is not the only crop facing crisis. Winter paddy was sown in only 1.02 lakh hectares, compared to 2.13 lakh hectares last year. Pulses growers sowed in 3.27 lakh hectares, compared to 4.39 lakh hectares in the previous season. Oilseeds also suffered huge losses, which have reduced from 21.34 lakh hectares last year to 13.38 lakh hectares now. Coarse cereals were the only bright spot on the board, increasing from 13,000 hectares to 23,000 hectares.
India achieved a record crop of 120.7 million tonnes of wheat during the 2025-26 season. For the 2026-27 crop cycle, the government has set the benchmark even higher at 121 million tonnes. Achieving that goal will depend largely on whether the canal's late flows improve and farmers can put seeds in the ground without water shortages.
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Key points for wheat traders and agribusinesses
- Keep a close eye on spot market prices and futures: Slow initial sowing coupled with dry soil conditions may strengthen cash supply sentiment in northern physical markets.
- Keep an eye on canal flow and the arrival of cold-waves: low water levels mean winter temperatures must remain cool for longer periods of time to maintain grain weight and avoid heat stress during flowering.
- Sales of input companies may be delayed: There may be changes in the sales cycle in seed, tractor and fertilizer rollouts in central and northern India as sowing timelines will be pushed back.