US President Donald Trump made it clear on Sunday that the army will not attack Iran today. While leaving the White House on his way to Michigan, reporters stopped him to ask whether the attacks might resume before the weekend was over.
"Can I tell you this? The answer is no, there will be no strike today," Trump told the press gathered outside.
While Trump stopped short of any immediate attacks, backchannel diplomacy immediately kicked into motion. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Al Jazeera that a group of Qatari representatives landed in Tehran on Sunday. The official chose to remain anonymous and described the quick trip as a routine back-and-forth between the two capitals, while tensions remain high across the region.
Still, Tehran pointed the finger directly at Washington. "The main obstacle to a diplomatic solution is not mediation, but the US's refusal to accept Iran's legitimate demands and its continued reneging on its commitments," the Iranian official said.
Qatari officials traveled to Tehran as part of a quiet, coordinated effort with the United States to calm things down before things spiraled out of control, according to another source briefed on the talks.
Deal or strike? Trump puts Washington's next move on the line
Earlier on Sunday, Trump appeared on Fox News and boiled down the entire standoff to two clear paths: reach a quick deal or use force. Trump openly said, "Do I make a deal with them or do I destroy them? That's the only question."
Trump also made a bold claim about the world's most important energy corridor, insisting that US forces have completely captured the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed that maritime trade through waterways was exceeding pre-war numbers. "Remember, we now control the Strait of Hormuz. They get nothing. Yes, we get everything," Trump said.
Tehran pushed back against that claim. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on Sunday that if anyone crossed Iran's borders or threatened its sovereign territory, Iran's military response would be "beyond their imagination."
Backing up those words on the ground, the Iranian military announced on Sunday that it shot down a US Lucas drone flying near the southern port city of Bandar Abbas.
This all follows Trump's warning on Saturday, when he told the audience that the United States could easily attack Iran as early as "tomorrow" if the two sides failed to reach a consensus.
Blockades, stalled tankers and regional firing
Conflicting stories are circulating regarding the backchannel conversations. Tasnim, a news agency directly linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on Saturday cited an informed source as saying that Iran has not submitted any new proposal to Pakistani envoys. The report strongly rejected the suggestion that Tehran would only agree to reopen the strait if US sanctions were lifted, directly countering an earlier report by Al Arabiya that claimed such a deal was on the table.
Behind closed doors, Washington appears to be preparing for whatever comes next. The New York Times reported that high-level US officials see Trump personally as leaning toward launching another wave of major military strikes. Meanwhile, The Hill reported that military commanders have already drawn up specific attack plans to launch right after the November midterm elections.
The economic impact on global water is already visible. An AFP report has revealed that approximately twelve empty Iranian oil tankers are parked just off Sri Lanka's coastal waters. Ships cannot sail home because the US naval blockade has closed entry to Iran's domestic ports.
At the same time, fighting broke out again over a wider area. The Saudi-led military coalition announced on Sunday that its defense systems shot down an incoming swarm of armed drones and ballistic missiles. The weapons were fired toward Riyadh and Saudi Arabia's southern regions by Yemen's Houthi movement, which is closely allied with Tehran.
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Key takeaways for crude oil and energy market traders
- Short-term breathing room:Trump's confirmation that attacks will not occur today eased the immediate panic in energy markets, but the threat remains active day-to-day.
- Chokepoint Friction:Trump's claims of US dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, in contrast to the Iranian drone interception in Bandar Abbas, maintain high risk premiums in the crude shipping lane.
- Supplies stranded at sea:With Iranian tankers stranded in Sri Lanka due to a port blockade, physical barrels have been locked out of the global supply chain, destabilizing oil prices.
- Diplomatic Lifelines:A closer look at Qatar's direct mediation; Any sudden diplomatic success could immediately take the geopolitical risk premium out of energy futures.