Wheat, soybean and sugar quietly outperform in 2026
Even as the headlines continued to shine on energy and AI, wheat, soybeans and sugar slipped to strong, risk-adjusted returns this year, while copper languished despite all the buzz, according to a fresh OptionMetrics brief.
Why focus on energy?
Data-platform writer Brett Friedman points out that the 2026 energy story has captured most of the market's attention.
Agricultural commodities are distributed without promotion
Those three agricultural products moved with very little fanfare, yet they hold solid weightings in both the S&P GSCI and the Bloomberg Commodity Indices.
benchmark for reference
For context, the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) was up 11.7% YTD as of October 16 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was up 15.8%.
YTD numbers for crops
Sugar recorded a massive gain of +44.7%. Chicago SRW wheat increased by +32.3%, and soybeans increased by +22.1%.
Sharp Ratio Highlights
When you take volatility into account, the story looks even better: Sugar's Sharp is +1.72, Soybeans are +1.30, and Chicago SRW Wheat is +1.20.
wheat-soybean price dance
These two crops moved almost in lockstep this year. Their calendar-year price correlation reached a record 0.919, meaning that about 85% of one's price changes can be explained by the other.
Limited diversification, similar seasonal patterns
The tight link means you won't get much diversification benefit, but both still show the usual seasonal implied-volatility rhythms.
Copper's AI hype to no avail
Copper got caught up in the AI narrative because it is a vital input for electronics. "Regardless, those trading in it as an AI proxy have been disappointed so far this year," Friedman wrote.
Copper's YTD return is 15.5%, but its Sharpe ratio is only 0.65, which is lower than the three crops. The average implied volatility this year is 29.1%, still above the 21-year baseline of 26.9%.
FICIAL PRESS VS ACTUAL RESULTS
“The fiat press often confuses a compelling narrative with real, risk-adjusted results,” Friedman said.
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Conclusion for commodity traders
- Wheat, soybeans and sugar are the quiet powerhouses of 2026; Consider them for risk-adjusted risk.
- Copper's hype has not translated into strong risk-adjusted returns – remain cautious.
- The high correlation between wheat and soybeans means they don’t add much diversification on their own.
- Seasonal volatility patterns still persist, providing timing signals for the three crops.