Sellers step in when storage levels exceed estimates
Natural gas prices witnessed a sharp decline in the latest trading session and fell by 3.86% to Rs. But it closed. 281.80. The main reason for the decline was straightforward: domestic production in the United States picked up pace again, and weekly storage additions came in well above analysts' expectations. Even though shipments from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export ports remained steady, they were not strong enough to halt sales.
कुल अमेरिकी आपूर्ति को देखते हुए, निचले 48 राज्यों में औसत उत्पादन अक्टूबर में थोड़ा नरम होकर 112.1 बिलियन क्यूबिक फीट प्रति दिन (बीसीएफडी) हो गया था, जो अगस्त और सितंबर के दौरान देखी गई 113.3 बीसीएफडी की रिकॉर्ड ऊंचाई से कम है। हालाँकि, दैनिक क्षेत्र प्रवाह ने पिछले सप्ताह में तेजी से वापसी की और 113.3 बीसीएफडी के निशान की ओर वापस चढ़ गया। निर्यात के मोर्चे पर, नौ प्राथमिक निर्यात टर्मिनलों पर भेजी जाने वाली औसत गैस सितंबर में 17.9 बीसीएफडी की तुलना में अक्टूबर में बढ़कर 18.5 बीसीएफडी हो गई, जिससे बाजार को कुछ आधारभूत समर्थन मिला।
Warm weather and rising stockpiles dim the outlook
The weather is not helping buyers right now. Current forecasts suggest warmer than normal conditions will last until November 13, meaning people may not need to turn on the heating in their home just yet.
At the same time, the inventory figures shocked. U.S. natural gas storage increased by 80 billion cubic feet during the week ending October 23. This beat market estimates of 75 Bcf and topped last week's 77 Bcf injection. Total storage in the ground now stands at 3.724 trillion cubic feet. Although this volume is still 3.8% lower than last year, it is about 1% higher than the general five-year average.
Longer-term numbers also show plenty of supply on the way. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that domestic production will climb to new records of 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and reach 116.1 bcfd in 2027. Over the same timeline, domestic consumption is expected to tick up to 92.4 bcfd and 93.8 bcfd. Exports are also projected to grow, with LNG volumes expected to touch 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027.
Wall Street is paying attention. Goldman Sachs recently cut its 2027 NYMEX price target from $3.50 to $2.80 per MMBtu. The bank pointed to rising production from the Permian Basin and expects supply growth to exceed demand by more than 2 bcfd, keeping the market well supplied and curbing rallies.
Technical picture: Fresh short positions created
On the charts, fresh short positions are entering the room. Open interest jumped 18.84% to 58,919 contracts as the price traded at Rs. There was a decline of. 11.30.
Right now, buyers are trying to defend the initial support at Rs. 273.50. If that level is broken, the next floor will be Rs. Sits on. 265.50. On the other hand, any bounce will run into immediate resistance near the rupee. 292.00, and only a clean breakout crossing that mark can clear the way for a move towards Rs. 302.50.
Smart Trading: Why data matters more than gut feeling
Making smart commodity plays comes from clear numbers rather than emotions. Gut feelings may seem exciting, but trading without thinking often leads to costly mistakes. Combining clean market data with smart analytical tools gives you a better shot at identifying real trends before they happen.
Key Takeaways for Natural Gas Traders
- Short-term bearish bias:Mild November temperatures and a larger-than-expected 80 Bcf inventory injection are keeping short-term demand soft.
- Supply continues to expand:US production remains near 113.3 bcfd, while long-term forecasts from both the EIA and Goldman Sachs show production continuing to exceed domestic needs.
- Important chart levels:Keep a close eye on Rupee support. 273.50; A break below potential tests at Rs. 265.50, while bulls need to reclaim Rs. To bring the momentum back up to 292.00.