Trump signs restraint, Iran opposed negotiations
The oil prices went down on Wednesday, and the global benchmark Brent touched the session minimum range of $89.18 falling down from the $90 barrel for the first time after August. The decline came after this sign of US President Donald Trump that new US attacks on Iran are not necessarily required. However, denying peace negotiations by Iran, attacks on ships near Hormuz Jaldmumdmi and attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure by Iran-backed Houthi Group limited damage
Brent Crude Future (January Termination) fell by 0.6% to $92.03 per barrel while US WTI Crude Future (December Termination) fell to 0.5% off at $86.46
Trump’s Iran Policy and Dialogue Status
In the White House Press Conference, Trump said that the war with Iran will “fall out” and the naval blockade on the country will continue mostly. He also said that the military confrontation with Iran has become “behaviorally eliminated”. Trump discussed the prospects of the Iran Agreement consisting of Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani. Qatar has been the major arbitrator between Washington and Tehran, but recent agreement efforts have failed
Trump told CNN in the phone interview that he would order against Iran and less military action, provided diplomatic negotiations continue to progress. He also said in CBS 60 minutes that after intermediate elections he would not want to increase the war
After the International Democratic win, the diplomatic solution expected with Iran from Congress, which led to the Brent Future’s prices to fall in the worst week since April 2020. Iran’s high official said that there is no direct negotiations with the US and Washington should stop making false news of “imagined negotiations”
Energy flow and water pressure conditions
THE ONGOING STRUGGLE FROM THE NINE MONTHS OF NOVEMBER IS DISRUPTING THE OIL FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE EAST, ESPECIALLY FROM THE HORMUZ JALDMROOM, WHICH TAKES THE OIL AND LNG OF A FIFTH PART OF THE WORLD. RECENT DATA SHOWS THAT THE MOVEMENT OF SHIPS HAS IMPROVED DUE TO AMERICAN MILITARY SAFETY. YET THE UK’S MARITIME TRADE CENTER SAID THAT A TANKER STRUCK DOWN AN UNKNOWN PROJECTILE NORTH-EAST OF OMAN’S LIMA. IRANI MEDIA SHOWED BURNING FOOTAGE ON A TANKER IN THE JALDAMBAMI, WHICH WAS HIT BY SEA MIN
The ongoing struggle between the Iran-backed Houthi group and the Saudi-backed government in Yemen is also being monitored. Huthi Group said he attacked several pumping stations of the East-West pipeline of Saudi Arabia, causing fire and damage
HOT CPI DATA AND WALL STREET RESPONSE
THE U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) GREW 0.4% MONTH-TO-MONTH IN OCTOBER, WHILE 0.6% IN SEPTEMBER. ECONOMISTS EXPECTED 0.3%. CORE CPI, WHICH KEEPS FOOD AND ENERGY OUT, REMAINED STABLE AT 0.3%, ABOVE EXPECTED 0.2%
The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a program in London that they are in favor of increasing rates, even if the inflation data is cold. He pointed out that if the data is heated, the half-percent point could be increased. It virtually paved the chances of increasing the rate of the next month of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). According to the CME FedWatch tool now there is about 10% probability in the price of 50 bases point increases
Wall Street saw a deterioration, while large responses to interest-insensitive properties occurred. The US Treasury Yields began to repel, bonds buck and dollar strengthened. But in a positive side, the energy prices in October only increased 0.7%, while in September there was a jump of 5.2%. Petrol prices also increased only 1%, compared with a surge of 9.3% in September
Conclusions for Brent Oil Traders:
Brent prices have come down again from $90 due to Iran-joint stress, but peace expectations have received temporary relief in the market. Traders should take a look at the further volatility in oil prices, shipping risk in the Hormuz Jaldmroom and the impact of the US monetary policy. It will be wise to look for small-time trading opportunities with risk management