This analysis is continuously updated during the trading hours of the market so that traders are getting accurate information
Risk Diagnosis:
The biggest risk at this time is that if the ongoing consolidation at the existing elevated levels breaks downwards, the expressions can slip up to 50-peried Simple Moving Average (SMA). The risk for accelerating buyers (Bulls) will rise to below Rs 26,000, while getting over Rs 27,500 for decelerating Sellers (Bears) can prove to be dangerous
SUPERTREND IS SHOWING STRONG SUPPORT AT RS.25,529 IN FAVOR OF BUYERS TO MONITOR THE MARKET STRUCTURE. THE EXPRESSIONS ARE FIXED ABOVE 50- PERIOD SMA (25,526 RUPEES), MAKING MEDIUM TERM MOMENTUM. APART FROM BEING TRADED ABOVE THE UPPER LEVEL OF THE ICHIMOKU CLOUD (RS 26,715) LOOKS STRUCTURALLY BULLISH TRENDS
ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE ARE SOME SIGNS IN THE FAVORITES OF THE SELLING. BELOW THE MACD LINE SIGNAL LINE AT RS 26,860 (244.32 VS 386.19) HAS ARRIVED, SHOWING BEARISH CROSSOVER. WHILE ADX HAS FALLEN TO 28.67, WHICH MEANS THE STRENGTH OF THE CURRENT TREND IS DECREASING. THE PRICE ACTION IS ALSO MAKING LOWER HIGH AT RS 27,500, WHICH POINTS TO THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE. IF THE EXPRESSION CROSSES RS 27,848, THE BEARISH VIEW WILL PROVE WRONG, AND THE BULLISH VIEW WILL BE INVALID IF IT FALLS BELOW RS 25,526
Patterns & Levels:
The bull flag or high-level consolidation has been formed between Rs 26,000 to 27,500 as per the chart pattern, which has been completed by about 80 per cent. Refer to Fibonacci Retracement (18,820 from low to low of 27,848) at Rs 23.6% Retracement Rs 25,717 and Rs 38.2% Retracement is coming at Rs 24,399
The candlestick action has got to see the bullish rejection at Rs 26,360, which cleans that the purchasers are active at the lower levels of the range. If it comes to trendline, there is a strong support to be tested for three times at Rs 26,040, while a two-time test resistance line is stacked at Rs 27,500
Risk Metrics:
MARKET RISK METRICS ARE TELLING THAT AVERAGE TRUE RANGE (ATR) IS 464.66 I.E. 1.73%. THE EXPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING ABOVE 5.22% FROM YOUR 50 SMA. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS THAT THE RECENT ALL-TIME HIGH (RS 27,848) HAS BECOME BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN RSI, AND THE VOLUME AROUND RS 26,860 IS ALSO STEADILY DECREASING
Zones:
THE BEST SCOPE FOR SHOPPING I.E. LONG IS RS 25,500 TO RS 25,700, WHERE 50 IS THE CONFLUENCE OF SMA, SUPERTREND AND 23.6% OF FIBONACCI. THE PERFECT PLACE FOR SHORT SELLING IS BECOMING FROM RS 27,500 TO RS 27,800, AN AREA OF ALL-TIME HIGH AND LOWER HIGH RESISTANCE. WHILE THE SCOPE OF RS 26,200 TO RS 27,200 IS THE NO-TRADE ZONE, THE MARKET HERE IS STUCK WITHOUT ANY APPARENT DIRECTION
Scenario Playbook:
IF YOU WANT TO ADOPT A FASTER STANCE, THE RISK WILL REMAIN THAT THE BREAKOUT MAY BE FALSE, FACING SUPPLY NEAR THE ALL-TIME HIGH. AGGRESSIVE TRADERS CAN TAKE ENTRY AROUND RS 26,900 ON 20 SMA BREAKDOWNS, WHILE SAFE TRADERS CAN WAIT FOR TRENDLINE BREAKDOWNS ABOVE RS 27,550. STOP LOSS WOULD HAVE TO BE KEPT AT RS 26,200 (UNDER SELF TAKE 26,040). TARGETS CAN STAY RS 1,950, TARGET 2 RS 28,500 AND TARGET 3,000. TAKE THE STOP LOSS COST ONCE THE FIRST TARGET ARRIVES AND TRAIL 20 SMA FURTHER. IT IS NECESSARY TO MONITOR THE SURGE IN VOLUMES ACROSS 27,500
THE RISK FOR TRADERS PLAYING A BEARER IS THAT STRONG UPTRENDS CAN REBOUND FROM THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE RANGE. AGGRESSIVE SELLERS CAN SHORTLY SEE A REJECTION FROM LOWER HIGH TRENDLINE AT RS 27,400, WHILE SAFE SELLERS CAN TAKE ENTRY ON CONSOLIDATION SUPPORT BREAKDOWN BELOW RS 25,900. THE STOP LOSS FOR THIS WILL BE RS 27,900 (ABOVE THE ALL-TIME HIGH). TARGET ON THE BOTTOM WILL BE RS 1 25,500, TARGET 2 RS 24,800 AND TARGET 3 RS 24,400. ONCE THE FIRST TARGET MEET, GET THE RISK FREE AND TRAIL WITH THE SUPERTREND. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FALL OF MACD HISTOGRAM
Dashboard:
AT THE MOMENT HIGH-LEVEL CONSOLIDATION PATTERN IS ACTIVE AND CLOSE TO 80% HAS BEEN COMPLETED. A STRONG SUPPORT OF 23.6% FIBONACHI AND 50 SMA HAS BEEN MADE BETWEEN RS 25,500 TO RS 25,700. BING REJECTION TAIL HAS BEEN SEEN IN CANDLESTICK ON RS 26,360. AT THIS TIME, IT IS SENSIBLE TO KEEP THE STANCE BETWEEN RS 26,200 TO RS 27,200, AS THE EXPRESSIONS ARE MOVING IN A LIMITED SCOPE. ALSO BE ALERT WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF THE BULL TRAP, CLOSE TO RS 27,500
Conclusions for NCDEX Turmeric Traders:
THE FUTURES OF TURMERIC STAND AT THIS TIME AT THE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TURN. ALL-TIME HIGH HAS RSI DIVERGENCE AND CURVES VOLUME SHOWING FATIGUE AT UPPER LEVELS. TRADERS SHOULD NOW AVOID CREATING NEW POSITIONS IN THE RANGE OF THE MIDDLE (RS 26,200-27,200). THE BETTER STRATEGY WOULD BE TO SPEED UP WHEN YOU GET A CLEAN BREAKOUT ABOVE RS 27,500, OR PLAN SHORT SIDE ON A SUPPORT BREAKDOWN OF RS 26,000