Market Summary:
– Natural gas clozed at 283.6 by an increase of 0.53%, as cold weather expectations in the late November, showing the impact of record levels in LNG exports and decline in production in recent weeks. According to the data of the financial firm LSEG, the gas production in the lower 48 states of the US fell to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day in November, while the monthly record of 113.4 bcfd in October and 115.0 bcfd in August was high
In history, record production and light spring weather maintained inventory above the average of five-years from March, rising from the normal level to 7.7% in April. Then the high temperature in the summer drained a large amount of storage to drive the power plants, thereby reducing the sapples to just 1% in the middle-October. The US power generation comes from about 40% of gas-fired plants, and the storage in the week ended November 6 is expected to rise to 2.1%, while it was 1.4% last week
basically, the usenergy companies exempted the expectation of 81 bcfd of the market by adding 77 billion cubic ft gas storage in the week ended october 30, making the total inventory 3.801 trillion cubic ft, which is 2.8% less than last year but 1.4% higher than the average of five-years. it came after the injection of 80 bcfd in the week ended october 23
Supply-Demand Projection:
According to EIA’s short-term energy Outlook, the US supply and demand is reaching record high in 2026–2027. Dry gas production will increase from the record of 107.6 bcfd in August 2025 to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027. Domestic consumption is likely to increase from 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.4 bcfd in 2027 and reach 93.8 bcfd in 2027. The LNG export average increases from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, which is higher than the projection of September
On the contrary, Goldman Sachs reduced the 2027’s NYMEX Natural Gas Price Forecast from $2.80/MMBtu to $3.50/MMBtu, as the expectations of the Permian production are high and the supply growth will be 2 bcfd higher than demand. He advised the producers to hedge the 2027 exposure, while the supply-demand balance in the near-future market will not be up to 2029, allowing prices to go above $3/MMBtu and reach more than $4/MMBtu by 2031. Meanwhile the spot market shows these dynamics
Technical status:
Technically the market is in short coverage, as open interest 4.48% fell to 50,974, while prices rose to Rs 1.5. Natural gas is now getting support at 277.00 and can test the potential downside up to 270.50, while resistance is at 288.50; Prices above this level can be tested up to 293.50
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Findings for Natural Gas Traders:
THE CURRENT BULLISH STANCE OF NATURAL GAS CONTINUES DUE TO COLD WEATHER, GROWING LNG EXPORTS AND DECREASING US PRODUCTION. TECHNICALLY SUPPORT LEVELS LOOK STRONGER, BUT PRICES CAN GO UP TO NEWER HEIGHTS AFTER BREAKOUTS ABOVE RESISTANCE. TRADERS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM POTENTIAL SHORT COVERAGE PHERS, TAKING A LOOK AT OPEN INTEREST AND INVENTORY DATA, WHILE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LONG-TERM SUPPLY-DEMAND IMPLANTATION, KEEP PROPER HEDGING IN PORTFOLIO