Turmeric on the NCDEX is sitting in a tight range, and traders are watching a bearish RSI divergence that could shake things up. Below you’ll find the live levels and the full technical picture.
Executive Risk Summary: Primary risk is a momentum breakdown from the current high‑level consolidation, threatening a mean reversion. Danger levels are a 5‑hour close below INR 26,200 (support) or a bull trap above INR 27,500.
- Bulls: SuperTrend: Up @ 25573 → Macro trend remains firmly bullish.
- Bulls: Ichimoku: Price > Cloud 24669‑26539 → Strong structural support below.
- Bulls: SMA(20): 26838 @ 26862 → Price holding the short‑term moving average.
- Bears: MACD: 475 < 611 @ 26862 → Bearish crossover indicates waning momentum.
- Bears: RSI: 60.64 @ 26862 → Trending downward from overbought territory.
- Bears: Price Action: Lower highs since 27848 → Potential distribution phase.
- Invalidations: Bull @ 27850, Bear @ 25500
- Chart patterns: Bull Flag / Consolidation @ INR 26200‑27500 [80% complete]
- Fibonacci: Retracements 23.6% @ INR 25718,38.2% @ INR 24400 (18820‑27848)
- Candlestick: Doji @ INR 26862 [Nov 3] → Indecision at the mean.
- Trendlines: Support INR 26200 [3 touches], Resistance INR 27500 [2 touches]
- ATR: 464.51 (1.73%)
- Extension: 6.9% from SMA(50)
- Divergences: Bearish RSI divergence (lower highs vs price higher highs in late Oct)
- Volume: Decreasing @ consolidation
- Long: INR 25500‑25700 (SuperTrend + 23.6% Fib confluence)
- Short: INR 27500‑27800 (Near ATH resistance + lower high structure)
- No‑Trade: INR 26200‑27200 (Choppy consolidation range)
| BULL | BEAR | NEUTRAL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk | False breakout (bull trap) at ATH resistance. | Underlying macro uptrend squeezing early shorts. | No trades in range INR 26200‑27200. Wait for break of 26200 or 27500. Monitor: Volume and MACD histogram for directional clues. |
| Entry Aggressive | INR 26500 on support bounce. | INR 26800 on MACD bearish continuation. | |
| Entry Conservative | INR 27850 after ATH breakout confirmation. | INR 26200 after breaking Kijun/support. | |
| Stop | INR 25800 (Below consolidation and 23.6% Fib) | INR 27500 (Above recent lower high) | |
| Target 1 | INR 27600 (Risk: Reward=1.57) [Range resistance] | INR 25400 (Risk: Reward=2.0) [SuperTrend support] | |
| Target 2 | INR 28300 (Risk: Reward=2.57) [127.2% Extension] | INR 24700 (Risk: Reward=3.0) [Ichimoku Cloud bottom] | |
| Target 3 | INR 28860 (Risk: Reward=3.37) [161.8% Extension] | INR 24400 (Risk: Reward=3.42) [38.2% Fib retracement] | |
| Confidence | M | M | |
| Management | Target 1→breakeven, Target 2→trail SMA(20), Stop→reenter @ 25700 | Target 1→breakeven, Target 2→trail SuperTrend, Stop→reenter @ 27850 | |
| Monitor | Volume expansion on breakout above 27500. | RSI breaking below 50 and 5h close below 26200. |
Pattern Status: Consolidation flag [Active, 80% complete]
Fib Confluence: 23.6% Fib & SuperTrend @ INR 25600‑25700
Candlestick Alert: Doji [Nov 3]
Optimal Now: Neutral @ INR 26200‑27200 because price is trapped in low‑volume consolidation with mixed momentum signals.
Preservation Alert: Bull trap @ INR 27500
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Key Takeaways for NCDEX Turmeric Traders
- Momentum is wobbling – watch the bearish RSI divergence closely.
- Support at INR 26,200 is critical; a break below could spark a quick sell‑off.
- Resistance near INR 27,500 may act as a bull trap; avoid chasing a false breakout.
- Long bias works best around INR 25,500‑25,700 with tight stops.
- Short bias targets start at INR 27,500‑27,800 if price punches through the ATH zone.