Market moves and current positions:
THE COMMODITY MARKET HAS FOUND FIRMNESS IN THE FUTURES OF NATURAL GAS. ACCORDING TO REPORT, NATURAL GAS CLIMBED 0.49 PER CENT TO THE LEVEL OF RS 285. THIS BOOM HAS BEEN PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT DETERIORATION IN RECORD SUPPLY AND AMERICAN PRODUCTION IN COLD ESTIMATES, LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG) EXPORT UNITS, WHICH HAVE OCCURRED AT THE END OF NOVEMBER
If you look at the fresh data of LSEG (LSEG), the average output of gas in the lower 48 states of the U.S. came on the 111.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November month. Earlier in October it was 113.4 bcfd, while in August it had touched the record level of 115.0 bcfd. i.e. gradually decrease in production is being recorded
Mathematics of inventory and supply:
On the other hand, an increase of 77 billion cubic feet in the US Natural Gas inventory in the week ended October 30. However, the market was seated to expect an increase of 81 billion cubic feet, thereby reducing the figure expected. Now total gas storage in the US reached 3.801 trillion cubic feet
This current stock is 2.8 percent lower than last year, but still 1.4 percent higher than the average of 5 years. In the coming time, the storage is likely to go up to 2.1 per cent from the normal of Sarpulus, giving clear indications that sufficient supply of gas in the market exists for the winter season
Long-term Outlook and demand scenario:
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), both production and consumption in the year 2026 and 2027 can reach record height. Estimated that dry gas output will increase from 2025 to 107.6 bcfd to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027. While domestic consumption is also expected to grow from 91.9 bcfd to 92.4 and 93.8 bcfd respectively. Furthermore LNG exports can also reach 17.6 in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, increasing from a record of 2025 to 15.1 bcfd, giving good support to demand
However, the medium-term trend is showing under certain pressure. The Veteran Brokerage firm Goldman Sax has reduced its Naymax (Nymex) Natural Gas Price Estimate from $ 3.50 to $ 2.80 per MMBtu. The 2 bcfd has been anticipated to stay much more than 2 bcfd from the rapid demand of bodybuilders production and supply in the Permian basin behind it. The Bank believes that the balance between supply and demand can take up to 2029
Technical Levels and Support Resistance:
If you look at the technical perspective, look at new shopping in Natural Gas. Open Interest 1.48 percent has risen to 51,727 contracts, while prices have improved at Rs 1.40
According to the charts, the first strong support for Natural Gas is at Rs 281.50 and if it slips, the expressions can drop to Rs 278.50. There is a level of Rs 287 on the top. If the expressions thrive across this level, the recovery can go further to Rs 289
Findings for Natural Gas Traders:
Natural gas has become an increasingly atmosphere of winter demand and production reduction for short term. However, the fear of oversupply for a long time is not yet completely eliminated. Intraday and short term traders should plan with stopLos for target of Rs 287 and 289 with a view on the support of Rs 281.50