Silver Gains As Dollar Eases And Oil Falls After Iranian And Qatari Peace Talks

Silver settled 2.59% higher at Rs. 1,83,779 per kilogram. The rise came as the U.S. dollar slipped and crude oil prices fell after Iranian and Qatari officials met to discuss ending the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Even with the bounce, gains stayed limited because traders still see a 75% chance of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate hike in December after last week’s decision to keep rates steady.

Supply‑Demand Outlook

HSBC says the silver deficit will shrink dramatically – from 140 million ounces in 2025 to just 5 million ounces in 2026 – before easing a bit to 12 million ounces in 2027. The bank points to more mine output, higher scrap recovery and recycling, while noting weaker demand from industry and jewellery.

HSBC’s price targets are $70 per ounce by the end of 2026 and $65 in 2027.

The Silver Institute and Metals Focus expect the market to record its sixth straight year of a structural deficit. Since 2021, cumulative stock withdrawals total 762 million ounces.

Global deficit is projected to rise to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, even though total demand is expected to dip 2%. Industrial fabrication demand is forecast to drop 3% to a four‑year low, while demand for coins and bars should climb 18%.

London’s silver vault holdings grew 1.95% month‑on‑month to 28,985 tonnes at the end of September, worth about $56.6 billion.

Analysts see silver averaging $66.75 per ounce in 2027 – a recovery from current levels but still below the 2026 forecast of $70.30.

Technical Snapshot

The market is seeing short covering. Open interest fell 6.47% to 16,933 contracts while price jumped Rs. 4,647.

Current support sits at Rs. 1,81,100, with the next level at Rs. 1,78,420. Resistance is at Rs. 1,85,570. A clean break above could push the rally toward Rs. 1,87,360; a slip below the first support may bring back selling pressure.

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Conclusion for Silver Traders

• Silver price rose sharply on a weaker dollar and falling oil but may stall as traders price in a likely Fed hike.
• Supply outlook improves dramatically in 2026, yet demand weakness keeps the deficit sizable.
• Technicals show short covering and a key resistance at Rs. 1,85,570; breaking it could fuel further gains.
• Keep an eye on Fed policy and industrial demand trends when planning trades.