According to the fresh report of , the crude oil i.e. crude oil stopped at the level of Rs 8459 with a decline of 1.18% in the live business session. The hopes of solving the case through diplomatic interaction in the Middle East somewhat calming down the anxiety of blockage in the supply of crude oil. U.S. President Donald Trump discusses stress-loss steps with Qatar’s rich Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, as well as news that Tehran is considering new proposals regarding its nuclear program
However, if there is a way out from the conversation and the export of oil grows, then there are several major challenges left at the ground level. Iran’s direct demand is that as long as the U.S. does not completely remove its naval blockade, does not relieve the blockades and does not release its freeze properties, the way to the Hormuz Jaldmamroomad (Strait of Hormuz) will not be normalized. On the other hand, the cases of attacks on ships have still remained close to the record level, according to the UKMO data
Complete Mathematics of Supply and inventory:
the global brokerage firm jp morgan estimates that the crude oil market had arrived in sarplas of 11 lakh barrels per day (bpd) in september, reaching 14 lakh bpd in october. in addition, the domestic production of oil also in the u.s. has reached a record of 14.003 million barrels daily in the week ended october 30
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) refers to the Fundamental Data of the U.S. crude oil reserves declined by 8,65,000 barrels and this component remained 409.8 million barrels, while the market was expecting growth. Kashing (Cushing) storage recorded an enlargement of 2,80,000 barrels. The crude oil consumption in American refineries grew 1,99,000 bpd and the refinery utilization rate increased to 94.5%. While the stock of petrol fell 2,22,000 barrels, the reserves of 209 million barrels and distillate came at 3.6 million barrels, while the US’s pure crude oil import is increased by 1.18 million bpd
OPAC and Russia's production statistics:
OPAC (OPEC) has enhanced the projection of growing oil demand around the world for the year 2027 with the intention of replenishing the evacuated reserves, but has continuously cut its growth estimate for the year 2026. Increased production of OPAC Plus countries in September, with the main role of Saudi Arabia that produced 8.372 million bpd. The Secretary-General of OPAC isHatham Al Ghas clarified that the projection of demand for the current year has been reduced to 4,00,000 bpd
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia’s raw oil production was increased by 65,000 bpd in September to 8.43 million bpd, which is below 8,70,000 bpd compared to the previous year. Russia’s raw oil export increased by 60,000 bpd to 5.3 million bpd, while Kazakhstan’s production remained at 1.9 million bpd. On the contrary, Russia’s production in OPAC’s data is called 38,000 bpd component 8.643 million bpd
Technical Levels and Support Resistance:
The trend of Long Unwinding (Long Unwinding) in Crude Oil on Technical Charts is clearly visible. Open Interest 0.15% of the constituents came to 7486 contracts, while prices found a direct decline of Rs 101. At present 8300 levels for crude oil have become an extremely important support. If this support level breaks downwards, the market may see a decline of up to 8145. While there is the first strong resistance at the level of 8680 for the crude in a fast position, the prices can test the level of 8900 after crossing this barrier
Conclusion for Crude Oil Traders:
The Middle East will have a sharp fluctuations in crude oil between geopolitical stress, US sanctions and OPAC’s changing production figures. Limited recovery can be expected on decline as long as the market is hinged above the strong support of 8300. Traders should make trading strategies only by taking into account 8300 strict stopLos and 8680 to 8900 resistance targets