Copper slightly increased from 0.19%, at price ₹1,368.05, as the production of copper in Chile fell to the lowest in the third quarter in two decades, leading to increased supply anxiety
However, due to re-selling in technical stocks, the benefit was limited due to the overdose of the AI valuetion and the likelihood of increasing the rate by the Federal Reserve in December
On the front of the supply, Chili’s copper commission Kochilko sharply reduced the production forecast of 2026 to 4.94 million metric tonnes with a decline of 8.4%, from the estimate of the first 5.27 million tonnes. Minor recovery of 3% is expected in 2027. Coachillco raised the average copper price forecast for $6.18 per pound for 2026 and $5.95 per pound for 2027, as the supply of miners is limited and the ability to adsorb the production disruption is low
The International Copper Study Group reported the Surplus 132,000 MT of the Refined Copper in August, while 45,000 tonnes were deficit in July. In the first eight months the total surplus became 218,000 tons. The group estimates that the global refined copper market will remain in Sapply, increasing from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, as both miners and refined production are increasing
THE BASIC CAUSES OF THE DEMAND ARE STILL STRONG: REFINED COPPER CONSUMPTION IN 2026 IS EXPECTED TO GROW 2.5% IN 1.5% AND 2027, DUE TO AREAS SUCH AS ELECTRONICS, RENEWABLE ENERGY, DIGITALIZATION, DATA CENTER AND SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING. CHINA’S COPPER IMPORT INCREASED BY 20.7% A MONTH, REACHED 461,000 TONNES IN SEPTEMBER, AND THE YANGSHAN PREMIUM REMAINED CLOSE TO $200 PER TON, WHICH SHOWS THE INTENSE DEMAND OF IMPORTED METAL. ALSO, THE INVENTORY IN SHFE-LED WAREHOUSES DECREASED MORE THAN 75% OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS, MAKING THE SUPPLY LOOK CLEARER
Technically, the open interest increased by 0.49% to 6,420 contracts, while the price increased by ₹2.65, creating a new bullish position. copper has got support at ₹1,348; ₹1,328.50 can be tested when it falls below this level. The resistance is set at ₹1,381; if the price remains above this level, the price can reach ₹1,394
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Conclusions for copper traders:
Copper prices are likely to stay upwards due to the decline in supply and China’s growing import demand. The technically support level is stable around ₹1,348, while the further bullish movement is expected on the rise of ₹1,381. Traders should monitor this range and consider appropriate hedging in the portfolio to avoid large supply shocks