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Risk Diagnosis:
the biggest risk at this time is that a lot of heavy slowdowns (downtrends) are becoming a position like catching a knife. if the expression slips under $1198, the heavy panic selling can be found to see the surrender. on the other hand, the market has been oversold, making it a sharp short-covering or short-scale risk at any time
There are a few things in favor of the bulls if they understand the market structure. The RSI on $1201.88 is at 28.55, which shows that the market is oversold and can come a bounce from here. While the MFI is at the level of 18.82, which is pointing to excessive oversold conditions and the fatigue of the sales. At the same time, the expression remains close to 1200 dollars of the psychological support
On the other hand, the grip of the recessions is extremely strong. The ADX is 40.57 on $1201.88, indicating a extremely strong trend. Supertrend is giving down signals at 1222.07, giving the bears a full-fledged look. The Ichimoku Cloud is between 1213.81 to 1231.25 and the current price remains below 1201.88, showing the complete linement of the slowdown. If the expression crosses 1222.07, the slowdown will become invalid, while the vision of the seams below 1198.25 will completely eliminate
Patterns & Levels:
If you look at the chart pattern, the trend on the bottom is still active on the 1200 dollar. The 38.2% of the falls from 1335.25 to 1198.25 as per the Fibonacci Retracement comes at $1250.58 and 50% of the retracement at $1266.75. When it comes to candlestick, Doji Candle is made at $1201.88 on November 5, which reflects the market’s indecision status at lower levels. Trendline support is at $1198, while SuperTrend’s dynamic resistance is made on $1222
Risk Metrics:
The market has been recorded on Volatility i.e. ATR 6.88 (0.57%). The expression has been extant below 20 SMA to -1.21%. At the moment there is no large divergence visible on the chart, and the volume is constantly decreasing at the level of $1201.88
Zones:
The important areas for trading can be divided into three parts. Shopping i.e. Long Zone is between 1195 to 1200 dollars, where psychological support and oversold indicators are supported. The short zone is from 1216 to 1222 dollars, where the resistance of 20 SMA and Supertrend will be seen. Also the scope of $1200 to 1216 is the No-Trade Zone, where the Choppy Moves can be seen in the market before the big resistance test is
Scenario Playbook:
According to the bearish strategy, the biggest risk is the short squies coming from the extreme oversold RSI and MFI. Aggressive traders can take entry on $1198 on the recent low break, while safe traders can short on $1216 after receiving a rejection from 20 SMA. For this stop loss will be 1226 dollars (above Supartrend 1222). The first target on the bottom will be 1198 dollars (Risk-Rivord 1.8), the second target will be 1180 dollars (Risk-Rivord 3.6) and the third big target will be 1165 dollars (Risk-Rivord 5.1). Confidence on this trade is quite high. Once the first target for the risk management comes, take the stop to Brakeven and trail with 20 SMA on the second target
Under the bullish strategy, the biggest danger is to hold the falling expression in a strong downtrend with ADX above 40. Aggressive traders can buy at $1202 by looking at the oversold position, while the conservative traders take entry at $1225 after Supertrend breakdown. It has to keep Stop Loss 1195 dollars (under psychological support of 1200). The first target on the top will be 1216 dollars (20 SMA), the second target will be 1222 dollars (supertrend resistance) and the third target will be 1234 dollars (50 SMA). This trade is low. Brave on the first target in the Trade Management and trail the second supertrend
Dashboard:
The strong downtrend is now active, so as to see the pattern status. The Fibonacci level of 38.2% has now become a tiger resistance, coupled with old support at $1250. Doji Candle on Recent Low is giving Momentum’s thumb alert. The best opportunity in the current time is to short between 1216 to 1222 dollars, as the trend of ADX40 is heavily on oversold signals. Traders should be alerted with a possible bull trap on 1216 dollars (20 SMA rejection)
Conclusions for soybeans traders:
The overall hold of the bears in the soybean market is very strong. Although the 1200 dollar level is a psychological support and the indicators are oversold, there will be a pressure of the sale on every bounce until the expression lasts above 1222 dollars. So avoid aggressive purchase and keep a look at the prices sold on any pullback